Last year Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon suggested that there were no more “major” shale discoveries to be made in the U.S.  Some may interpret that as an imminent swan song for the resource plays that have transformed the nation’s energy scene. However, The Land Rig Newsletter team contends that there are a lot of other tight rock resource plays emerging that in the aggregate could amount to something pretty major.

In the June 2 Unconventional Drilling Report, the LRNL team posits that liquids-focused tight rock resource plays will continue to proliferate in the most venerable of oil arenas, e.g. Oklahoma and Texas, even if there are no more “major” plays on the order of the Eagle Ford to be confirmed. A flurry of mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures will continue this year, spurring a fresh wave of drilling in these “lesser” liquids plays that will extend well into 2012—assuming oil prices hold up. But unconventional rig count gains will be reined in by softness in gas shale tallies that will probably persist through next year.

It seems as if The Land Rig Newsletter team can’t publish an issue of The Unconventional Drilling Report without acknowledging yet another milestone. UDR active rig counts have hit new highs for both total shales (687) and total unconventionals (at 805, surpassing 800 for the first time). The UDR also has a new record for the number of oil-directed rigs among both total shales (234) and total unconventionals (257), as well as a fresh peak for unconventional horizontals (680).

None of this dissuades the LRNL team, however, from their central thesis that tailwinds including low gas prices and drilling services capacity/takeaway constraints will slow growth in unconventional drilling this year. The signs are already at hand:  The UDR’s YTD average unconventional active rig count is up only 3% from 2H 2010’s average but 50% higher than 1H 2010’s average. In addition, new environmental regulatory hurdles could add more tailwinds to unconventional drilling growth, in the wake of Chesapeake’s apparent wellhead breach and subsequent spill of flowback fluids during a Marcellus frac job in Pennsylvania last week.

Since October, rig counts in the Fayetteville have been stable at around 30 units.  This trend is likely to continue since a majority of capital going into the play is directed at development drilling.  Southwestern Energy has been the most active operator with an average of 13 rigs in recent months.  ExxonMobil’s XTO subsidiary and Chesapeake have also been active in the play.  Its subsidiary contractor, Desoto Drilling, performs most of Southwestern’s drilling.  Other contractors active in the play include Union Drilling, Nomac and Keen Energy Services.

Persistently low natural gas prices have weighed on drilling activity in the Arkoma Woodford, the legacy Woodford play, in recent months.  Since yearend, the number of rigs drilling in the play has fallen by four to 18 rigs.  On a positive note, rig levels may find support now that two majors, BP and ExxonMobil, are some of the most active in the play.  Cactus has been the most active contract driller in recent months with seven rigs.