| February 1, 2010 Rig Utilization As of February 1, The US Gulf of Mexico floating rig fleet is currently made up of 33 rigs, 26 semisubmersibles and seven drillships. Included in these numbers are two newbuilds, Transocean’s Discoverer Inspiration and Diamond Offshore’s Ocean Courage, both of which will begin contracts this month. Also included is Diamond Offshore’s semi Ocean Voyager, which will arrive in the US Gulf from Mexico by mid-February. On the flip side, semis Ocean America and Cajun Express are not included in the count as they will be leaving the Gulf within the next few months. Currently, 14 of the 33 rigs (42.4%) are rated to drill in at least 10,000 feet of water; four of the 14 are rated to operate in 12,000-ft water depths. In addition, another nine units (27.2%) can drill in at least 7,500 feet of water. Utilization currently stands at 96.9 percent, with 32 of the 33 units under contract. However, the lone non-contracted unit, the aforementioned Ocean Voyager, is rumored to have a deal in place, so once the details of that emerge, utilization will return to 100 percent. Better yet, only two rigs are slated to complete contracts in 2010 and have no follow-up work secured. Diamond Offshore’s Ocean Baroness will finish up work for Hess in mid-April, while the Noble Paul Romano is scheduled to complete its contract with Marathon Oil in July. In 2011, however, 10 rigs are due to come off contract. Eight of the 10 will be over by the end of June with the other two finishing up in the fourth quarter. Clearly, some of these contracts will be extended and other rigs will secure new deals, but whether demand will completely absorb all these rigs remains a question. One factor that will definitely continue to impact the market is operator available slots on existing contracts. Some estimates are that there will be as many as 10-12 contract slots available each year through 2011. Currently, there are six floaters in the Gulf working under sublet agreements. To this point, demand has been high enough to keep these slots filled; but in the future opportunities for rigs coming off contract will be reduced if the level of available slots remains high. As for new construction, four rigs will enter the U.S. Gulf this year. Two of the four were noted above. The other two units, Pride’s Deepwater Ascension and the Noble Jim Day, will begin four and five-year contracts in the third quarter. While these newbuilds may be used for work that could be done by existing rigs, they should have little overall effect on contractors’ abilities to find follow-on work for any rigs coming off contract in the future.In regards to day rates, the long-term contract signings that are now prevalent in the Gulf have resulted in no new fixtures for quite awhile. In 2008, when several new deals were done, rates of over $500,000/day for deepwater and ultra-deepwater units were routine. The high of $650,000/day was attained in July with Eni’s signing of Transocean’s drillship Deepwater Pathfinder. Since 2008, the closest thing to a new fixture was in September 2009 when Petrobras America signed up Diamond Offshore’s 10,000-ft rated semi Ocean Courage at $410,000/day. Petrobras had contracted the rig at the same rate with the previous owner, but the shipyard seized the rig after the company defaulted on a shipyard payment. Diamond purchased the rig from the shipyard in June 2009 and came to agreement with Petrobras in September, opting to honor the rate of the prior contract. In 2008, that same rig would have likely been signed for $500,000/day or above. As for the current market, the consensus is that rates agreed to today would be as much as $150,000/day lower than those signed in 2008. While a few are still somewhat bullish, it seems clear that there is a downward pressure on rates, and any contracts signed this year will reflect that. Nevertheless, despite the inevitable drop in rates that will likely occur, contractors will continue to make money and operators will no doubt welcome the relief. Headline News Anadarko Petroleum Corporation announced the Lucius sidetrack appraisal well, located in 7,100 feet of water in Keathley Canyon 875, encountered almost 600 net feet of high-quality oil pay with additional gas-condensate pay in thick subsalt Pliocene and Miocene sands. The Lucius appraisal well was drilled to TD 20,600 feet. Partners include Plains Exploration & Production Company and Mariner Energy. Operator News Market rumors continue to persist that Pemex will tender for up to five jackups in March. Reports indicate the tenders will include 250-ft, 300-ft and 350-ft jackups that are 10 years of age or less with work starting in the late second and third quarters. The tender is not believed to be for incremental demand, meaning the rigs would replace existing units. Of 29 jackups currently operating in Mexico, contracts for 14 of those are scheduled to end by June 30. Bids are due to BP around mid-February for a 15K BOP jackup requirement off Trinidad. The program is believed to be for three years with two additional one-year options. It is understood drilling is scheduled to begin in October. Further details will be reported as they become available. Cobalt International has approved a 2010 capital program of $430 million. In the Gulf of Mexico, this program includes the commencement of three Cobalt-operated exploratory wells (North Platte, Aegean and Ligurian), three partner-operated exploratory wells (including Firefox) and one partner-operated appraisal well -- Heidelberg #2. Petrohawk Energy announced its proved oil and gas reserves at December 31, 2009 are estimated at 2.75 TCFe. Proved reserves increased over 1.5 TCFe over year-end 2008. Driller News Formerly idle jackup Rowan Louisiana is under tow to Eugene Island 337 to start a 60-75 day contract with Devon Energy. The rig had been idle since the end of June. It is believed the term will be used to further reduce Devon’s contract with the Rowan Gorilla II jackup, now scheduled to end around August. With the contract, Rowan’s marketed Gulf jackup fleet is 100% utilized, with the cold stacked Rowan Juneau the only idle unit. Seahawk Drilling has received a one-well plus one option contract from Energy XXI for jackup Seahawk 2500. Work in South Timbalier 21 is scheduled to begin by February 15 and is expected to last about 45 days. The rig is preparing for the work in South Timbalier 56 where it was stacked. Meanwhile, jackup Seahawk 2505 arrived in the U.S. Gulf on January 27 and is now idle in West Cameron 38. With the rig’s departure, the Seahawk 3000 is the only remaining jackup the company has operating in Mexico. The contract is due to end February 6, and while no decision has been finalized, the rig likely will be mobilized to the U.S. Gulf. Finally, the Seahawk 2600 completed its contract with Walter Oil &Gas and is now on location in Ship Shoal 190 for the start of a 90-day plus 90-day option with Apache. Jackup Seahawk 2601 still has about a week left on its contract with Castex Energy, after which it will mobilize to Walter Oil & Gas for a 90-day contract. Diamond Offshore semi Ocean Voyager is now pulling anchors and will mobilize from Mexico back to the U.S. Gulf shortly. The rig had been under contract with Pemex since November 2007. Rumors are that Diamond has a contract pending for the rig upon arrival, but details are not yet known. The move will leave Diamond with one semi in Mexico. The Ocean New Era’s contract with Pemex is due to end February 15. However, market reports are that Diamond will receive a contract extension from Pemex. Should that materialize, details will be reported as they become available. ENSCO reports that work for ExxonMobil Production (EMPC) will now run to around mid-March, extending past the original end date of mid-February. It is expected that ENSCO will have a follow-up contract in place for the rig later this month. Spartan Offshore has secured new contracts for its rig fleet. Spartan 208, currently working for Tarpon Operating in East Cameron 266, has inked a deal for a 30 day ADTI turnkey well for Northstar GOM. The new contract keeps the rig busy to late April. Meanwhile, Spartan 151 is starting its contract with Maritech Resources in East Cameron 195 and will follow that work up with a 30-day deal with Mariner Energy in Eugene Island 53. The two contracts will stretch rig availability through the end of March. The contractor’s only idle rig, the Spartan 202, is rumored to be starting a short contract next week. Once signed, Spartan will have its four-rig jackup fleet 100% utilized. Sources indicate that Scorpion Offshore newbuild jackup Offshore Mischief has been awarded a three-well contract for work off Brazil. Reportedly, the consortium of Anadarko, Starfish Oil & Gas and Queiroz Galvao each have 165-240 day wells to drill, making the contract term a minimum of 495 days. It is anticipated that work will begin in the second quarter. The LeTourneau Super 116-E design rig is being built at Lamprell Shipyard in Dubai and is scheduled for completion in April. It is rated to drill in up to 350-ft of water, although leg extensions can extend the capability to 400 feet. Service/Supply News Global Industries, Ltd. announced that Trudy P. McConnaughhay has been appointed Vice President & Controller. AMEC been selected by Brazilian company Quip to perform basic engineering services for the topsides of the P-63 floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel, to be operated on behalf of Petrobras. |